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Journal of the National Academy of Legal Sciences of Ukraine

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Criminal risks for the national security of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war transformation of society

Valentyn V. Kovalenko

Received 18.07.2026, Revised 18.08.2026, Accepted 30.09.2026

Abstract

In modern conditions, criminological risks should be considered not only as factors of a possible increase in crime, but also as an element of a system of threats to national security, which requires timely forecasting and a comprehensive legal response. The effectiveness of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will significantly depend on the state's ability to timely identify potential criminogenic processes, assess their impact on the functioning of society and implement preventive mechanisms to minimize them. Criminological risk is an objectively existing probability of the emergence or development of criminogenic processes under the influence of social, economic, informational, political or military factors, the implementation of which may negatively affect the state of law and order, the functioning of state institutions and the level of national security. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive theoretical and legal study of criminological risks as a component of the system for ensuring the national security of Ukraine, determining their essence, classification and main areas of minimization in the conditions of the post-war transformation of society. The post-war period will be characterized by large-scale restructuring of the economy, reform of the security and defense sector, restoration of infrastructure, return of millions of citizens, demobilization of military personnel and implementation of significant programs of international financial assistance. Each of these processes contains its own criminogenic potential, which in the absence of proper state governance can transform into real threats to national security. It is argued that modern criminological policy should move from a predominantly reactive model of combating crime to a risk-oriented model of managing criminogenic processes. It is such a model that will ensure timely identification of potential criminal threats, their comprehensive assessment and implementation of preventive mechanisms even before negative consequences for society and the state are realized. The post-war transformation of Ukraine should form a qualitatively new system of criminological risks that are interdisciplinary in nature and cannot be effectively neutralized solely by law enforcement agencies. Their minimization requires coordinated activities of state bodies, the security and defense sector, local governments, scientific institutions, and civil society institutions.

Keywords:

national security; criminological risks; criminological policy; risk-based management model; post-war period; criminogenic processes

https://doi.org/10.31359/1993-0909.2026.33.3.299

Retrieved from Journal NALSU №3, 2026 year

Pages 299-315

References Suggested citation

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Suggested citation

Kovalenko, V.V. (2026). Criminal risks for the national security of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war transformation of society. Journal of the National Academy of Legal Sciences of Ukraine, 33(3), 299-315. https://doi.org/10.31359/1993-0909.2026.33.3.299