Criminalistics prognosis

The current stage in the development of criminalistic is characterized by the activation of its predictive function, which corresponds to a real increase in the theoretical value and practical significance of the investigation, an increase in the theory ethical considerations and practical recommendations. The relevance of the problem examined in the statistics is determined by the need to formulate criminalistic prognosis as a related criminalistic study of the patterns of impulses and re-verification of forecasts that reflect prospects and directions development of criminology and objects of knowledge in the future. The research is based on the analysis of current scientific views on the understanding of criminalistic prognosis, its important structure, place and role in the system of the criminal theory of criminalistics, directly in the spheres of real life Examples of theoretical positions, methods of identification and verification of criminalistic forecasts. To achieve this goal, the following fundamental sciences and special research methods were used, such as dialectical, historical, formal-logical, systemic-structural, systemic and semantic analysis. It is noted that, despite its importance, the prognostic function of forensic science has not yet received the proper development that corresponds to the complex tasks in the field of fighting crime. The need for thorough development of the theoretical and methodological basis has been emphasized, construction and inspection of forensic forecasts, creating the necessary working tools for carrying out this kind of investigation. In view of the above, the need for the formation of forensic prognostication as a separate forensic science and an independent field of legal (juridical) forecasting becomes especially important. It has been proven that forensic prognostication in its research covers scientific, scientific-applied and practical spheres, and forensic forecasting according to the scale of circumstances and facts reflected in prognostic judgments, and the scope of solved tasks in judicial and investigative practice, it is differentiated into strategic, tactical and individual. The result of prognostic studies are forecasts that can be divided into exploratory and normative, constructive and destructive, group and individual, current, short- and long-term. The basic methods of developing these forecasts are questionnaires, interviews, monitoring, analogy, extrapolation, modeling, expert opinions, drawing up analytical notes, writing a forecast scenario, checking and evaluating (verification) of forecast conclusions.

forecasting, forecasts, verification, extrapolation, monitoring, modeling, analogy